Two of China’s most prominent artificial intelligence startups, Zhipu AI and MiniMax, are facing significant near-term market pressure as massive lock-up periods for cornerstone investors expire this week. The expiration will release over HK$50 billion worth of equity into the Hong Kong stock market, testing investor appetite and potentially prompting a rotation of capital back into traditional technology stalwarts. The event marks a critical maturation point for the recent wave of AI-driven initial public offerings, shifting the focus from initial hype to sustained market valuation.
According to The Standard, Zhipu AI (listed as Z.ai, ticker 2513) will see 25.68 million cornerstone shares unlock on Wednesday, July 9. These shares account for 5.8 percent of the company’s total equity and are valued at approximately HK$46 billion based on recent closing prices. MiniMax (ticker 0100) will follow on Thursday, July 10, with 16.5 million cornerstone shares unlocking, potentially flooding the market with HK$5.7 billion worth of equities. Analysts caution that the market may require time to absorb this substantial extra supply, advising investors to remain cautious.
Valuation Volatility After the HK$1 Trillion Peak
The lock-ups expire during a period of extreme volatility for these newly listed AI unicorns. Zhipu AI’s stock has plunged more than 20 percent in recent days after briefly hitting a staggering market value of HK$1 trillion last month. Despite the recent correction, the stock remains up 14.4 times from its IPO price in January 2026, reflecting the immense premium investors have placed on foundational AI model developers. Both Zhipu AI and MiniMax were included in the Hang Seng Tech Index in early June and are reportedly planning secondary listings in the mainland A-share market.
The Bloomberg report that Zhipu AI is considering a multibillion-dollar secondary share sale in Hong Kong following the lock-up expiry adds another layer of complexity to the near-term supply picture. If the company proceeds with a secondary offering while cornerstone shares are simultaneously unlocking, the combined dilution pressure could be substantial. Market observers are watching closely to see whether the company’s strong fundamentals, including its GLM-5.2 model’s top-three global benchmark ranking, are sufficient to sustain current valuations amid this supply headwind.
However, the potential downward pressure from the unlocking shares is being counterbalanced by strong macroeconomic signals. Chinese AI stocks, including Zhipu and MiniMax, rallied sharply on July 6 and 7 following indications from Beijing of expanded policy support for the sector. Both companies saw their shares surge by 23 percent amid broader market optimism regarding regulatory reforms and state backing for “new productive forces.” This tug-of-war between massive new share supply and aggressive state-backed sentiment will dictate the near-term trajectory of these AI leaders.
(Related: After the Plunge: What the STAR 50 Correction Reveals About China’s AI Fever)
Rotation Risk and the Case for Traditional Tech
While the AI sector remains the focal point of speculative investment, analysts suggest that the lock-up expirations could trigger a strategic rotation. Traditional technology giants such as Tencent and Alibaba may offer better upside potential in the near term, as their relatively low valuations and established revenue streams continue to attract capital inflows seeking stability. The expiration of cornerstone lock-ups often serves as a reality check for high-flying startups, forcing them to justify their valuations based on fundamental financial performance rather than pure technological promise.
Despite the localized volatility expected for Zhipu and MiniMax, market observers believe the expirations will have only a minor impact on benchmark indices and overall Hong Kong market sentiment. The broader narrative remains focused on China’s aggressive push to build a self-sustaining AI ecosystem, with these newly public companies serving as the vanguard of that effort. How the market absorbs this HK$50 billion liquidity event will provide crucial insights into the durability of China’s AI investment boom heading into the second half of 2026.
The lock-up expiry also raises a deeper question about the sustainability of the valuations that China’s AI model companies have attracted. Zhipu AI’s 14.4x return from its IPO price in just six months is extraordinary by any measure, but it reflects a market that has been pricing in a winner-take-most outcome for China’s foundational model layer.
As more companies list and as the competitive landscape becomes clearer, the market will need to reconcile these elevated valuations with the reality that the AI model business is characterized by rapid commoditization, intense price competition, and massive ongoing capital requirements. The lock-up expiry is, in this sense, not just a technical market event but a stress test of the broader thesis that China’s AI unicorns can sustain their current valuations over the long term.
For cornerstone investors who participated in the original IPOs, the expiry of their lock-up periods does not necessarily mean they will sell. Many of these investors, which include major state-backed funds and strategic technology partners, are likely to maintain their positions as a signal of continued confidence in the companies’ long-term prospects.
The more significant risk comes from secondary market investors who purchased shares at elevated prices during the post-IPO rally and may use the lock-up expiry as a catalyst to reduce their exposure. How these competing incentives play out over the coming days will be closely watched by the entire Chinese technology investment community as a barometer of market maturity and investor conviction.
(Related: China’s AI Funding Fever Shows No Sign of Cooling)