Nvidia's November 17 earnings report is the next scheduled occasion for management to address New Street's estimate that as much as 10% of fiscal 2027 revenue is tied to China.
China’s foreign ministry on Monday rejected the allegation that Alice Huang, the woman linked to Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang, is a Chinese spy. Asked about Nvidia’s board investigation at the ministry’s regular briefing on November 9, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, according to the ministry’s English transcript: "We responded to that last week. The ‘Chinese spy’ allegation is purely unsubstantiated and directed at smearing China." Caixin Global rendered the same sentence as "purely based on hearsay and speculation, and is a smear." The Chinese-language transcript reads 纯属捕风捉影，污蔑抹黑, so the ministry’s English text and Caixin’s wording are two translations of one sentence.
Nvidia shares fell on the day. CNBC’s market report said the stock closed 4.27% lower, and ABC News put the close at US$178.67. The new element for investors is a number, reported in CNBC’s New Street analysis. New Street Research says as much as 10% of Nvidia’s revenue may come directly or indirectly from China.
The board’s investigation and Huang’s admission of an affair were covered in EastFrontier’s earlier report on the board probe. No government has confirmed the espionage allegation on the record, and Beijing’s answer adds a denial without new evidence from either side.
Beijing answered on the spy claim and deferred on chips
The ministry’s transcript shows three Nvidia-related questions. The first, from a reporter at AFP, asked for comment on the board probe and on reports linking Huang to a Chinese citizen and technology executive whom U.S. officials say worked for Chinese intelligence. The transcript notes that NBC asked a similar question. Guo gave the answer quoted above and referred back to an earlier response.
Two further questions concerned chips. One asked about a Reuters report that about 600,000 advanced Nvidia AI chips are stored in Hong Kong awaiting shipment to mainland China, while Beijing declines to approve large-scale imports. The other, from Bloomberg, asked how China would respond if Washington tightened chip and technology curbs, noting Huang’s advocacy for looser rules. Guo gave the same reply to both: China’s position on U.S. chip exports to China is "consistent," and for anything specific, reporters should ask the "competent authorities." He named no authority and gave no figure.
Other English renderings of Beijing’s line differ in wording. ABC News quoted the Chinese government as calling the allegations "baseless and purely slanderous smears against China," and CNBC described Guo as calling the "so-called Chinese spy narrative" unsubstantiated. The ministry’s own transcript is the reference text for the quotation used here.
Analysts see a China exposure of up to 10% and an overhang on the shares
New Street’s estimate, reported by CNBC, equals US$37 billion to US$47 billion of the US$411 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue that consensus forecasts expect. It splits into 6% from legal sales into China and Hong Kong and 4% booked outside China. Of that 4%, New Street estimates half is physically diverted into China and half is used by Chinese-controlled offshore capacity. CNBC said Nvidia stock was down about 5% in regular trading when it published that analysis, and noted that Nvidia said at its 2026 annual shareholders meeting that it is "committed to compliance with all U.S. laws." The New York Times reported, per CNBC, that the Commerce Department had been investigating the company where the suspected spy was a boss, and that the investigation moved to the Justice Department after Nvidia’s general counsel contacted Commerce.
CNBC’s analyst roundup collected the reactions. Baird’s Tristan Gerra, who rates the stock Outperform with a US$500 target, wrote that revoking Nvidia’s H200 license could remove "any chance Blackwell or future generations of AI architectures ship to China." Bernstein wrote, "At a minimum we suspect the overhang is going to be around for a while." Raymond James said the episode would "likely strengthen congressional support for legislation such as the MATCH Act," in line with its view that the scandal builds support for tighter chip export curbs. Melius saw little near-term effect on demand and said the scandal is "unlikely to impact any near-term purchase decisions amidst a massive compute shortage."
The company at the center of the allegation disputes the diversion claims. CNBC’s Megaspeed explainer says Megaspeed called a published article "misleading information and incorrect insinuations," and that, per Megaspeed, inspections by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry and Nvidia found "no evidence of any violations." Singapore’s government said it had not investigated Alice Huang’s alleged intelligence ties or her relationship with Jensen Huang.
November 17 and November 18 now frame the story
Nvidia reports third-quarter earnings on November 17, according to CNBC. Three House Republican committee chairs, in a letter made public on November 5, asked Jensen Huang to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18, per the Megaspeed explainer.
Three developments would change the picture. Management’s answer on China during the earnings call would show whether it accepts New Street’s framing of legal versus diverted sales. Whether Huang accepts the November 18 invitation would show how the company handles the congressional inquiry. And any statement from Chinese "competent authorities" on the Hong Kong stockpile would indicate whether Beijing is moving on legal imports even as it contests the spy narrative.